Friday, January 28, 2011

Nine By Design 20 - Predicting The Oscars

Before we get into our weekly fun, I want to take a moment to remember the Space Shuttle Challenger crew.  It was 25 years ago today that the accident happened.  I was in 6th grade watching it live and I knew it was bad, because I'll never forget the looks on both teachers faces after it happened.  It's one of those, "Where were you when it happened?" moments.

Alright folks, onto our weekly list o' fun.  Today, I've been put in charge by my staff of predicting the Oscars.  How do you make predictions when you haven't seen all of the films?  I've analyzed technical facts, through hours and hours all kinds of info, burning the candle at both ends (which is bad by the way, started a fire), burning the midnight oil (Peter Garrett was pissed) and every other cliche that basically it comes down to, I'm guessing.  There is analysis, but it wouldn't make sense to anyone.  I'm not going to list the nominees for every category, due to space, but you can see them here.  I'm also not going to even try to fake predict the Best Foreign Film...I have even less than no clue on these.  Just no clue on the normal categories.  Fasten your seat belt folks, here we go.

Oscar Predictions:

Best Motion Picture of the Year is always hard to predict, but even harder now since they increased the number of films nominated to 10.  I think it's going to come down as a race between 3 movies; The King's Speech, The Social Network and True Grit.  I think it's going to be The King's Speech...just have a feeling.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role is a little easier to predict this year.  Here's my logic for my prediction.  Jeff Bridges already won for Crazy Heart, which is great if you haven't seen it.  Jesse Eisenberg and James Franco are both under 35, so they have time.  I'm trying to think like Academy voters.  Javier Bardem has won, granted it was Best Supporting Actor, but he's still won one.  So, Colin Firth, who has been nominated before, will get his well deserved statue.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role is a harder call.  I want to give it to Annette Bening, because she's been nominated 4 times.  I just don't see it.  Nicole Kidman has already won one.  I think it's Natalie Portman.  Michelle Williams could be a sleeper, but it's Portman's to lose.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role could be the hardest one to predict so far.  So many great actors are in this category.  Christian Bale, Jeremy Renner, Geoffrey Rush and Mark Ruffalo.  Hey, wait you forgot someone.  No, I didn't.  John Hawkes is the sleeper.  He's that guy you've seen before, but don't know his name.  He's the sleeper, the winner is going to be...Christian Bale.  I really want to say Jeremy Renner, but I can't.  I wouldn't be upset with anyone in this group winning.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role is the most clear cut in my eyes.  It's going to be Melissa Leo for her performance in The Fighter.  She won the Golden Globe.  I just don't see anyone else.

Best Achievement in Directing looks like another slam dunk with David Fincher winning.  He's a great director, but I'm going with David O. Russell in an upset.  Why not?  It's very difficult to make a great sports movie, especially boxing.  Good boxing movie = Raging Bull, Bad (but entertaining) boxing movie = Rocky (all of them).  If boxers threw punches like they do in Rocky, we'd have a lot of dead boxers.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen this is a tough one.  I think it's going to be Inception.  It's an incredibly interesting film.  I think it got snubbed in some categories for nominations, but I couldn't take any others out.  I think The Fighter and The King's Speech could win also, but I like Inception for this category.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published is a mouthful.  Say it out loud.  I know The Social Network will probably win, but I'm going with 127 Hours in an upset.  I think 127 Hours needs to win for something.  It's such a gripping story.

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year is the easiest of all the categories.  Toy Story 3 in a run away.  It's nominated for Best Picture after all, not just Animated, but Best Picture.  It's an easy one.

So that's what I think...I'm sure I'll be wrong on most, but I'm putting myself out there.  We'll see who wins in about a month.  You heard/read it here first!  Cheers...Happy Weekend!

1 comment:

  1. I'll narrow my predictions also.

    Best Motion Picture: Social Network
    Best Actor: Jeff Bridges
    Best Actress: Natalie Portman
    Best Animated: Toy Story 3

    See ya at the Oscars!